Investors in Amsterdam-based Nebius Group are anticipating a turbulent trading day on Monday. The AI infrastructure firm, previously part of Russia’s Yandex—often referred to as “Russia’s Google”—will see its Nasdaq listing revived after a prolonged suspension.
Background of the Suspension
Trading for Nebius was halted shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. At that time, shares were traded under Yandex’s ticker symbol through its parent company in Amsterdam. In July, Nebius was formed following a significant $5.4 billion deal that separated Yandex’s Russian assets from its international operations.
Yandex once boasted a market capitalization exceeding $30 billion, with revenue-generating businesses in online search, advertising, and ride-hailing now stripped away in Russia. Nebius aims to capture a share of the growing AI cloud market, representing a shift in focus for investors.
Expectations for Volatility
The last recorded trading price for Yandex was $18.40 per share in February 2022. With a free float of 78.1%, primarily owned by Western investors and funds, analysts predict substantial volatility in the initial trading days. Denis Buivolov, a personal investor in Nebius and head of research at BCS’s venture capital and pre-IPO department, expressed this concern.
In an analysis on the financial site Seeking Alpha, Buivolov valued Nebius at $4.6 billion, translating to approximately $23 per share. This valuation is based on the company’s plans and comparisons with competitors like CoreWeave, Lambda Labs, and Sacra.
Investor Reactions
One investor, who previously held shares valued at around $200,000, mentioned the possibility of purchasing more shares on Monday if prices drop significantly. They believe that some investors may be forced to sell off their stakes, leading to further price declines.
Dr. Jan-Oliver Strych, an advisor to his family fund that invested in Nebius, noted that the stock’s value will depend on the potential liquidity surge driven by AI investor enthusiasm versus the pressure from impatient sellers.
Future Growth Projections
Nebius specializes in providing Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI cloud services. The company is optimistic about sharp growth in these markets over the next few years. Nebius projects its revenue could increase three to four times by 2025, reaching between $500 million and $700 million. To support this growth, the company plans to invest between $600 million and $1.5 billion in capital expenditures to expand its data center capacity in Finland, France, and North America.
Related topics:
